Hendry’s Eclectica Fund, which posted losses in and , last year made a wager on the currency rising that helped the fund gain Eclectica Fund, a global macro hedge fund established in October .. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Year. Eclectica Asset Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority / Private & Confidential. 2 Hugh Hendry, April

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Indeed, 30 years later, during the presidential election campaign ofWilliams Jennings Bryan was still hotly contesting its merits. Hendry has been referred to as “the most high-profile Scot” in the hedge fund sector. Retrieved 13 June Retrieved 19 July It is almost like declaring an enthusiasm for Say’s Law. In Bernie We Trust? Just consider how much more devastating the experience would have been had they gone very long the commodity market in rather than golf courses and Rockefeller Centre.

Imagine that we have not even considered their pension liabilities. Do speculators really want this to happen?

Hugh Hendry

Or in other words, the best forgeries tend to pay homage to eclectca tastes and prejudices of their time. The dollar’s role as the world’s sole reserve currency has both assisted and accelerated the development of world trade.

Poor Old Norsk Hydro? Surely, the Chinese stash of Treasuries is a prudent elimination of the fat tail risk that private sector deleveraging in the west ends up killing the golden goose of the trade eclectiica.

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Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

They have built bridges to nowhere and dropped Yen notes from helicopters for twenty years and still they have nothing to show for it. Furthermore, their households have lifted their government bond weightings five-fold over the last ten years.

Heady stuff, but not without precedent: Clearly the additional return from Yen debt in Japan is close to zero and it exposes the nightmare of interventionists everywhere: So the physical developments in the western steel markets should raise some concern.

Investors have reacted to last year’s deflationary traumas by aptil that it is business as usual. Have no doubt that had we not aoril the dollar as a reserve currency, the rise of China would not have been as swift nor as decisive.

Austerity beckons for the clergymen; heaven will have to pay their stipend. But the Economy is Growing?

Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

But the pressure from so much issuance at a time of great reluctance from financial institutions to purchase bonds could break the stalemate. That is to say, Aprli will attempt to tell you everything that I know.

Inflation bets are all the rage. And so the Chinese are colonising the African continent in the pursuit of commodities and the Indian government has just agreed to buy tons of the IMF’s gold hoard. Even Ryanair are talking about suspending their aggressive growth plans and may delay the purchase of more planes.

Let me say it again; we have already had the devaluation. Harvard’s position could well be construed as a one-way bet. If the players didn’t have time to complete their business, they played a final round with a sudden ending where the loser would be pronounced dead. Do not forget that the Chinese could replicate equivalent currency baskets to SDRs at any moment.

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If a poet knows more about a horse than he does about heaven, he might better stick to the horse This time it has fallen sharply. Japanese financial institutions have quadrupled the percentage of their assets held in JGBs. My previous investment letter attempted to explain the subtleties of the Triffen dilemma and the dollar’s pre-eminent role in regenerating modern day economies.

Of course, it is not just steel. The government’s reaction to last year’s demand shock has been to increase its own leverage. However, output only troughed at its level; a twenty year retracement that is a far cry from our 70 year retracement.

Blog Subscription Form Find Notifications. Can Hugh Hendry teach us to love hedge funds? In my marketing presentations I show a picture of Madoff superimposed on a dollar bill and ask, ” That is what the last five years were all about. First, they will suggest that 4. The ability of fractional find banking to leverage this liquidity many times over provided the monetary mo-jo to instigate ever higher commodity prices.

They did not have to wait on the vagaries of a gold discovery to promote and sustain their economic engine.